Chapter 211: Ahh, the sky! The sky!

It was already late December.

Around this time of year, it’s safe to say things get busier than ever for us trainers. With the year’s end comes an explosion of paperwork, not to mention a packed lineup of events—Christmas, New Year’s, and more.

On top of that, for teams like ours with first-year senior-class Uma Musume, we also have to prepare for the URA Finals—a major race event on par with the Classic circuit and the Grand Prix.

And above all, the greatest obstacle, challenge, source of excitement, and biggest responsibility standing before a trainer at this time of year is…

The G1, the Arima Kinen.

For our team, this will be the final G1 race of the year. It’s held on December 27—the last Sunday of the year. And with only one week remaining, the participating Uma Musume are entering their final push phase.

We have two runners from our team.

…In other words, both Wilm and Bourbon are scheduled to race.

Their training programs have already shifted into final workout mode. These last sessions before the main race must push each runner right to the edge of their limits.

Up until now, due to the timing of their peak development, Bourbon had been running alongside Wilm to match her pace… but Bourbon herself is one of the elite contenders heading into this year’s Arima.

This final week needs to be used for her own sake.

So we decided to temporarily suspend their joint training and have each of them focus on their individual final adjustments.

For today’s schedule, Wilm starts with a gym warm-up before heading out to the turf, while Bourbon splits her session between hill training and the pool.

As for Wilm, she proposed trying something new on the turf. If what she says proves true, it could become a major asset for Hoshino Wilm. Alongside improving her overall performance, we’re aiming for that as well.

…Whether it’ll come together in time for the Arima Kinen, even I can’t say.

Meanwhile, Bourbon continues as always—focused on foundational training aimed at improving her physical abilities. Rather than learning running techniques or race theory, she gains far more from that approach.

Bourbon looks very intelligent—and in fact, her raw processing speed is high—but at her core, she’s the straightforward, muscle-driven type.

Well, “muscle-brained”… or rather, I’m the one who raised her that way.

"Seriously, big bro—you’ve always been like this, but for someone who’s supposed to be a data-type, you’re surprisingly muscle-brained."

"Yeah… I can’t really deny that."

In the trainer’s room, I was adjusting Wilm and Bourbon’s schedules on the whiteboard when Masa spoke up behind me, sounding exasperated. I nodded in agreement.

When I glanced back, I saw she was holding a monthly racing magazine—Monthly Running.

Out of the many magazines covering racing Uma Musume, this one leans more toward the trainer’s perspective. Its content balance is roughly five parts Uma Musume, three parts races, and two parts trainers. Even its Uma Musume articles tend to focus on the athletic side rather than the idol aspect.

It’s a fairly serious, no-nonsense publication devoted to the sport itself.

And as for Monthly Running—

This might sound like bragging, but ever since Wilm and I became central figures in both the Twinkle Series and the global racing scene, they’ve been paying close attention to us. Not long ago, they even requested an interview.

The article was scheduled for publication between December and January—around the time people start thinking about new beginnings—so most of the questions directed at me were things like: “What do you think is the most important quality for a trainer?”, “What mindset is needed to become a trainer?”, and “The basics of training Uma Musume.”

Masa must have read that article, because she folded her arms and let out a sigh.

"Constantly monitor an Uma Musume’s condition, stamina, and mental state perfectly, and adjust the optimal schedule accordingly… Sure, that’s ideal, but people are asking for advice because they can’t do that perfectly, right?"

"Well, I can."

"That’s exactly why it’s annoying when you say you’ve got no talent…!"

No, I really don’t have talent. I’m just relying on my reincarnation cheat.

…Though, come to think of it, if “App Reincarnation” is something I was born with, maybe it does count as talent.

This ability—my so-called reincarnation cheat—lets me visualize an Uma Musume’s stats. I always assumed it was some kind of bonus from being reincarnated, but… since no god or anything actually gave it to me, maybe it’s just an innate ability I was born with.

Maybe it’s time I stopped insisting I have no talent.

It’s a mindset I’ve held for over forty years, counting my previous life, so it won’t change overnight… but gradually reshaping how I see myself would probably be worthwhile.

Just like Wilm keeps moving forward, I need to keep moving forward too.

"By the way, big bro—your reincarnation cheat, right? Even without it, you can manage an Uma Musume’s condition just fine, can’t you?"

"Well… more or less."

"Then never call yourself inexperienced and untalented again."

"I’ll be careful…"

I got scolded…

Honestly, I don’t want to give up using App Reincarnation—it’s not 100% reliable without it.

"So then, Mr. Muscle-Brain—how do you see this year’s Arima?"

With Wilm and Bourbon out training, it was just the two of us in the trainer’s room. Masa’s tone was softer than usual—more casual, the way she only speaks with family.

We had already discussed our impressions and strategy for the Arima Kinen a month ago, right after the Japan Cup. But of course, that was only a provisional plan based on the information we had at the time.

As Wilm and Bourbon’s conditions evolve, and as we gather more intel from other teams, the plan continues to change.

…But that’s not what Masa is asking.

All updates are shared through the schedule app, and she’s not the type to miss those.

What she wants to hear is something I can only say right now—while our runners aren’t here.

In other words, my honest prediction—the one I can’t tell them.

"Wilm: 4. Tokai Teio: 2. Nice Nature: 1. Rice Shower: 1. The rest: 2… roughly."

At my answer, Masa frowned slightly as she thought it over.

"…Rice Shower in fourth, huh? That’s a bit unexpected."

"She’s terrifying, given her nature. She’ll definitely mark Wilm."

For a front-runner, being tightly marked is a major threat. Wilm has exceptional stamina, but even so, someone like Rice Shower—who specializes in targeting a single opponent—is dangerous.

But Masa shook her head lightly.

"No, that’s not what I meant. I thought you’d give Bourbon better odds."

"Oh, that."

Personally, I’d love to. I want Bourbon to win just as much.

No—more than that, I’ve already decided she will win.

But that’s not what she’s asking.

While reviewing the schedule, I simulate the Arima Kinen in my head.

The lineup isn’t fully confirmed yet, but it’s mostly set.

From our team: Hoshino Wilm and Mihono Bourbon.

From rival teams: Nice Nature and Rice Shower.

Among the top contenders: Tokai Teio.

From the Mejiro family: Mejiro McQueen and Mejiro Palmer.

Palmer’s close friend and rival: Daitaku Helios.

Ikuno Dictus, who has deep ties with both McQueen and Nature.

The veteran Happy Meek, whom Wilm is very fond of.

Souri Cross, now being called one of the new generation’s Big Three.

Those are the familiar names.

On top of that:

Unison Black, a Classic-class runner already with sixteen races under her belt and recently placed in the Japan Cup.

Heartly Letter, another Classic-class runner who’s been on the rise this autumn.

Innocent Grimoire, once considered one of the top three of her generation.

Shall We Run, who proved her late-blooming talent with a fourth-place finish in this year’s Japan Cup.

Ribbon Gavotte, a consistent G1-level competitor despite lacking a title.

Rionatal, Wilm’s contemporary, returning after a break following her third-place finish in the Kikuka Sho.

Holiday Hike, who placed fourth in that same race.

Altogether, eighteen runners—a true dream lineup.

I have data on every possible participant stored in my head.

Factoring in race conditions, weather predictions, and track state, I build the race scenario…

And even then, it still feels like this year’s Arima will be a tough one for Bourbon.

As I continue adjusting the schedule, I answer Masa without turning around.

"If we’re talking realistic chances, Bourbon’s path to victory is still pretty steep.

Her strength lies in her raw physical specs—her pure advantage. And in that case… the one she’s most conscious of, Wilm, becomes her greatest obstacle."

Hoshino Wilm and Mihono Bourbon are similar.

Both excel in straightforward contests of physical ability.

…Well, as Masa says, they’re both muscle-brained—and with me supporting them using App Reincarnation, maybe that’s only natural.

In a pure numbers battle, the higher total wins.

Wilm has a year more of peak development and already had high ability when she enrolled, so the advantage leans toward her.

I didn’t intend for things to turn out this way, and I did guide Bourbon down what I believed was her best path…

But ironically, her new goal has become an incredibly high wall.

"On top of that, there’s the distance—2,500 meters is slightly long for Bourbon.

And depending on how the race unfolds, she’ll have to run alongside four front-runners: Wilm, Souri Cross, Palmer, and Helios.

It’s hard to call this a favorable race for her."

Bourbon performs best when she’s the sole front-runner.

In a race packed with them, it becomes much harder for her to bring out her true strengths.

As I shifted magnets across the board, Masa let out an exasperated sigh.

“…Wait, seriously—what is this lineup? Four runaway leaders and one front-runner? Are we in some kind of runaway era or something?”

“Well, yeah. If Twin Turbo had recovered in time, we might’ve had five. And if Silence Suzuka hadn’t retired last year, it would’ve been six.

Honestly, this might be the era where runaway racing is valued more than ever.”

“One-third of the field—and not even a blade of grass left… I thought front-running wasn’t the orthodox style, and that runaway racing was supposed to be super high-risk. How did it end up like this?”

“It’s only considered hard to win because stamina usually runs out. But if you can sustain that pace to the finish, it becomes the strongest strategy there is.”

“So their ‘mid pace’ is just on a completely different level from everyone else’s.”

Well, that’s true.

In fact, early on, Wilm chose to run as a runaway leader precisely because she could maintain what others considered a high pace while treating it as her own mid-pace—allowing her to remain unaffected by the rest of the field.

Anyway—

If you ask whether Mihono Bourbon can run a full runaway race at senior-class pace and still make it to the finish without breaking down… the answer is no.

If anything, the one clear weakness in her stats is her stamina. That’s exactly why we can’t have her commit to a full runaway strategy.

But at the same time, we can’t let her get swallowed up by the pack either.

Even though she’s developed enough skill to manage things to a certain extent, her tendency to overexert herself could still lead to a catastrophic collapse.

“Ideally, she’d stay just behind the runaway group—Wilm, Mejiro Palmer, Daitaku Helios, and Souri Cross—keeping a gap of about two to three lengths while maintaining her own lead position.

Depending on her mental state that day, there’s a chance she won’t push herself too far.

But naturally, the pack will close in during the final stretch. If she gets caught between the runaway group ahead and the front-runners behind, she’ll inevitably start to rush.

This isn’t the kind of race she can win just by sticking to an ideal buffered pace, and her stamina is already stretched thin.

Naturally, she’ll be put in a difficult position.”

If Wilm were the only runaway leader, things might have been different.

Wilm doesn’t raise the pace unnecessarily. In the first half, she sticks strictly to the plan I set.

Bourbon might have been able to match that pace without too much trouble.

But with four runaway leaders, that’s no longer possible.

The biggest issue is Helios and Palmer. Unlike Wilm and Souri Cross, who run with a degree of rational control, those two don’t know how to rein in their passion.

If they run alongside Wilm, they’ll forcibly push the pace higher—and once they see each other accelerating, it could trigger a feedback loop where they keep driving one another faster.

Just like last year’s Arima, the race will likely stretch out vertically again this year.

“Well, it’s already strange enough having multiple front-runners, but four runaway leaders? They should wear each other down… or at least, they should.

So why is there someone with a 40% win probability?”

Masa leaned back in her chair, clearly exasperated.

I answered immediately.

“Because my Wilm isn’t going to lose.”

In the end, that’s the truth.

There’s no way racing Uma Musume Hoshino Wilm—when both she and I are fully in sync—would lose.

“And yet, 40%.”

Masa shrugged teasingly. A flicker of irritation rose in me, and I shot back:

“That’s different. This is just a theoretical analysis of the race. As a trainer, I believe both Wilm and Bourbon have a 100% chance to win.”

“That adds up to 200%. Stop talking nonsense.”

No, no—there’s actually logic to it.

I stopped what I was doing and turned to face my sister.

“Listen, Masa. First of all, Uma Musume have limitless potential.”

“Wow, my brother’s started talking like he’s dreaming.”

“No, I’m serious.”

The potential of Uma Musume… at its forefront are talent and “the zone.”

The ability to replicate another runner’s technique on the fly during a race, or to intuitively devise the optimal race development and countermeasures.

And then there’s the “zone”—the true essence of the Uma Soul—that can overturn all prior analysis in an instant.

Those elements hold truly limitless potential.

“Let’s say I push myself to the absolute limit and come up with the most perfect prediction possible.

Even then, it’s powerless in the face of an Uma Musume’s potential. One explosive moment from them can shatter every prediction.”

Source: my own experience.

Wilm, Teio, Nature—they all easily surpass my expectations.

No matter how precise my analysis is, it becomes meaningless in the face of their explosive growth.

“That’s… well, I don’t think your data-driven approach is pointless or anything…”

“Hm? Oh, no—that’s not what I mean.”

If anything, that unpredictability is what saves me.

I stepped away from the whiteboard and sat down at my desk.

On the monitor, Wilm and Bourbon’s stats and tactical data were displayed.

They never lie. They are absolute truths.

And yet, no matter how accurate they are, they don’t hold absolute value.

If every Uma Musume race unfolded exactly as my knowledge and “App Reincarnation” predicted—

If the data in front of me truly dictated everything—

Then I probably wouldn’t be this obsessed with Uma Musume in the first place.

To put it bluntly, what draws people in is always the unpredictable—the role of chance.

That’s the essence of competition. It’s the unexpected twists that stir people’s emotions.

The extraordinary that breaks through familiarity and certainty—that’s what people unconsciously seek.

And I’m no exception.

As a fan, I enjoy the unpredictability of Uma Musume races…

And more importantly, as a trainer, it’s something I need.

“For example—let’s say my predictions could perfectly determine the outcome of every race.”

“…Ignoring the current Twinkle Series, you actually did have perfect predictions ten years ago.”

“Let’s say I did.”

“…Okay.”

“In that case, my prediction would inevitably declare one of my two runners as the winner.

Which means I’d also be declaring that the other has absolutely no chance of winning.

And I think that’s incredibly, incredibly cruel.”

“…Yeah.”

If my predictions were always correct, then the result would be decided before the race even begins.

If Hoshino Wilm and Mihono Bourbon were both running in the same race, I’d have to tell one of them, “You’re going to lose.”

That would be unbearably cruel.

They run because they want to win—no, it’s because that desire exists that they’re able to give it everything they have.

And yet, if their own trainer were to tell them, “You can’t win”—

…Yeah. I don’t even want to imagine it.

So then—

When a trainer has more than one runner they want to see win… where should they place their heart?

When it’s clear, realistically, that one has the advantage… how should we face them?

I already have my answer.

During the recent Japan Cup, I told Bourbon, “Your chances of winning are low.”

But at the same time, I also said, “Even so, we’ll go all out to win,” and “I believe in your victory.”

And yet—

Because Uma Musume can surpass my predictions, those statements don’t contradict each other.

"Uma Musume possess limitless potential—no matter how far you try to predict the future, they effortlessly leap beyond it.

That’s precisely why, as a trainer, I can make race predictions without holding back. Because I believe they’ll clear those hurdles and achieve results even greater than what I foresee."

As a data analyst, I coldly predict that the chances of winning this race are slim.

As a trainer, I passionately believe that my trainee will surpass that prediction.

I think balancing those two perspectives is the optimal answer for us.

"That makes sense… I had been thinking lately that you’ve been saying a lot of things that feel more like emotional theory—kind of unlike you, brother. So that’s what it was."

"I-Is it really that unlike me…?"

It’s true that I’ve always tried to avoid letting emotions interfere, choosing instead to view everything through numbers as much as possible.

As I gave a wry smile, Masa closed her magazine and rested her chin on her hand. Her gaze drifted somewhere far away.

"In the end, you don’t really believe in yourself. You’re almost convinced that the so-called limitless potential of the Uma Musume surpasses your own predictions.

But because of that… no, maybe that’s actually the natural way. Rather than forcing yourself to change, taking things little by little with those girls… you’ve looked like you’ve been having more fun lately, so maybe this is fine."

That murmur sounded like she was talking to herself… but if I wasn’t mistaken, she was referring to me.

"I might be saying this myself, but I feel like I’ve been managing myself pretty well lately. What do you think?"

"Yeah, I guess so. You’ve gotten a lot better since this year started. I think it’s good."

Caught off guard by her unexpected honesty, my eyes widened.

How many years had it been since she spoke to me this directly?

"That’s rare—getting praised by you, Masa."

"It’s not like that happens… often."

Masa shrugged with a faintly teasing expression.

Her attitude was a little lazy, yet familiar… exactly the kind you’d show to family.

…Come to think of it, Masa herself had changed quite a bit too.

Around the time she entered middle school, she went through a rebellious phase, becoming harsher toward me and our older brother.

Thanks to our mother’s support, our family didn’t fall apart, and we managed to maintain a reasonable distance… but since then, she hadn’t shown me this kind of openness.

And yet now, after becoming a sub-trainer, she had started to soften, even if only a little.

Masa—my new family in this world, and my adorable little sister.

Of course, I wanted to grow closer to her.

…Though in truth, even while thinking that, I prioritized my training to become a trainer instead.

Looking back, I can’t help but feel I should have made more time for my family. And maybe, precisely because I didn’t, our relationship became strained…

But that aside. …No, not something to brush aside—I’ll make sure to apologize properly next time.

Of course, even if we close the distance now, we can’t return to the relationship we had as children.

She now calls me “brother,” and that old way of addressing me will likely never come back.

Like most things in life, once a relationship breaks, it can never fully return to what it once was.

But that’s probably fine.

There’s no need to restore everything exactly as it was.

Leaving what’s broken in the past and building something new for the future—that’s another path forward.

"Well… you’re not as irritating now, brother, so I guess I can acknowledge you as family.

You should just keep doing your best with Hoshino Wilm from here on."

"I’m glad to hear that. I’ll keep doing my best."

A sister who had changed, even if only a little.

And me, being told by her that I wasn’t so bad anymore.

This relationship we had now—I honestly felt like I wanted to cherish it.

…Anyway, I got a bit off track.

"Alright, let’s get back to the Arima Kinen.

To be honest, Bourbon’s chances of winning are slim. Based on the current information, it’s tough."

"I see… Still, Hoshino Wilm at 40%, huh? The current Twinkle Series really is brutal."

"Even putting it modestly, this is probably one of the strongest lineups in history."

Last year’s Arima Kinen was already incredible, but this year surpasses it.

Now that Wilm, Teio, and Nature—the three stars of their generation—have grown even brighter, this race will likely be even fiercer than last year.

"But still, 40%. A 40% win rate in the Arima Kinen should be amazing, but when you think of Hoshino Wilm, it somehow feels low."

"It is low—for Wilm, at least. Very low.

Like I said earlier, there are four runaway leaders likely to clash with each other, two schemer-type Uma Musume, and Tokai Teio—who has the explosive power to push Wilm to the brink.

Compared to the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, where she was roughly even with Souri Cross, her win rate is actually lower this time."

Tokai Teio proved she had surpassed Souri Cross, establishing herself as a star on par with Wilm.

Nice Nature, too, shone brilliantly—not just through strategy, but by surpassing even the greats with her own strength.

Those three shone the brightest, but the others were no less formidable.

Mejiro McQueen and Happy Meek wouldn’t be easily overwhelmed either.

Though their physical growth had slowed after reaching maturity, they had refined their techniques, closing the gap on the three stars.

The same was true for the Classic-class runners. Bourbon and Rice admired Wilm, striving to get even a little closer to her.

Because of Wilm, the overall level of the Twinkle Series had risen.

And that’s exactly why… an Arima Kinen filled with such Uma Musume would be even more brutal.

Seventeen shining stars, all surging forward at once, aiming to swallow Wilm whole—

Perhaps, at this very moment, it would become the most beautiful meteor shower in the world.

As our fingers moved across our keyboards, we exchanged smiles.

"Can’t wait."

"Yeah."

It was Wilm’s race.

It was Bourbon’s race.

And it was the race of these fiercely competing runners.

Born into the Horino family, raised alongside Uma Musume racing, there was no way Masa and I could dislike it.

Now then—one final week. Let’s train them without regret.

And then… together with them, we’ll enjoy this race.