Chapter 44: The Eve of the Derby

On the day before the Derby, headlines like "Japan Derby Gathers the 'Big Six' of This Generation!" flooded the news. We wrapped up our final training with a light run and retreated early to the trainer’s room for last-minute checks.

The race lineup and current odds were as follows:

    Gate 1, No. 1: Apollo Rainbow (1st favorite)

    Gate 1, No. 2: King Halo (4th favorite)

    Gate 2, No. 3: Vital Dynamo (17th favorite)

    Gate 2, No. 4: El Condor Pasa (3rd favorite)

    Gate 3, No. 5: Special Week (2nd favorite)

    Gate 3, No. 6: Septagon Summoner (16th favorite)

    Gate 4, No. 7: Cornet Rhythm (12th favorite)

    Gate 4, No. 8: Tide and Flow (13th favorite)

    Gate 5, No. 9: Mejiro Lambert (8th favorite)

    Gate 5, No. 10: Grass Wonder (5th favorite)

    Gate 6, No. 11: Jewel Tepes (14th favorite)

    Gate 6, No. 12: Seiun Sky (6th favorite)

    Gate 7, No. 13: Key Card (15th favorite)

    Gate 7, No. 14: Atêmer (18th favorite)

    Gate 7, No. 15: Destinate (9th favorite)

    Gate 8, No. 16: Algol (11th favorite)

    Gate 8, No. 17: Coincidence (10th favorite)

    Gate 8, No. 18: Minigenia (7th favorite)

The reason I’m the top favorite is probably because of how the Satsuki Sho went, combined with my gate draw. In the last race, despite the terrible odds stacked against me as a front-runner, I still managed to squeeze into second by a nose. That must’ve boosted my reputation. Plus, there’s always the underdog charm—people tend to root for the one who almost wins. That kind of sentimentality is probably helping drive my popularity.

Still, no matter how it came to be, the fact remains that I’m the favorite. Once in a lifetime, the grand stage of the Japanese Derby—and I’ve been blessed with Gate 1, Slot 1, and the number 1 ranking. It’s like the Three Goddesses have finally decided to give me their blessing. If I don’t win here, I’ll be a disgrace to all Uma Musume.

Second favorite, Special Week, only placed fourth in the Satsuki Sho, but that was due to a bad draw on the far outside and getting boxed in by the pack. She’s universally recognized as having G1-class ability and naturally became the second favorite behind me.

Third is El Condor Pasa, still undefeated so far. But her rotation—Shinzan Kinen (G3, 2nd week of January) → New Zealand Trophy (G2, 2nd week of April) → NHK Mile Cup—has all been on 1600-meter tracks. And now she’s jumping up 800 meters in distance, plus racing again just one week after her last. Even for an undefeated filly, people are saying this might be pushing it.

Fourth is King Halo, recognized for her consistent results: 1st in the Hopeful Stakes, 3rd in the Yayoi Sho, and 3rd in the Satsuki Sho. While there are similar concerns about the increased distance as with El Condor Pasa, she always manages to make the board, and her closing speed when she really cuts loose is terrifying. So her popularity remains high.

Fifth favorite, Grass Wonder, is also undefeated to this point. She’s already proven she can handle the 2400-meter distance in the G2 Aoba Sho. However… when fans and insiders watched that race, a significant number walked away thinking, “Grass Wonder doesn’t handle left turns well,” which probably brought her odds down to where they are now.

As for Seiun Sky, winner of the Satsuki Sho, she’s down at sixth favorite. A lot of people are calling that victory a fluke, saying it was just a perfect storm of inside draw plus green belt advantage. On top of that, her schedule’s been packed with interviews and media shoots, which apparently threw off her rhythm, causing her to lose favor. Still, there’s a wide gap between her and the seventh favorite, so it’s safe to say the "big six" are still very much the big six.

"—And that brings us to tomorrow. It’s finally the Japanese Derby. Our main goal’s the Kikuka Sho, yeah, but that doesn’t mean we’re walking into the Derby to lose. We’re going in to win. All out."

Tomio brought over the whiteboard and started sketching out the layout of the Tokyo Racecourse before turning back to face me. What we were about to do was the same operation check we’d already gone over dozens of times—just one more review to lock it in.

"Before we go over our strategy again, let’s first review how we expect the other ‘Big Six’ to move."

As he said this, Tomio slapped Special Week’s photo onto the whiteboard using a magnet. Then he added mine, El Condor Pasa’s, and King Halo’s.

"Let’s consider things from Special Week’s point of view. She’s in Slot 3, Gate 5—with El Condor Pasa to her right, and King Halo three spots over. She’s also got Apollo all the way on the inside. Basically, she’s got options. If she chooses to run from behind, she’ll probably shadow King Halo. But if she decides to run near the front, she might choose to mark El Condor Pasa, Seiun Sky, or Apollo."

"In your opinion, Tomio, you’re saying Spe-chan will go with a front-running strategy, right? Figuring King-chan will get swallowed up in the pack with that inside draw, and trying to secure a good early position to come after us?"

"Exactly. Which is why Special Week is one of the runners we need to be most on guard against."

Tomio tapped Spe-chan’s photo with the back of his hand as he spoke.

If I try to imagine things from Spe-chan’s perspective, then considering the extra 400 meters, she probably won’t come charging straight at me like in the Hopeful Stakes. But she’ll still want to run her best race. In that case, it makes the most sense for her to hang just forward enough to read the flow of the race, using her inside gate advantage. Her strategy will be to stay up front, and the ones she’ll be watching are likely Seiun Sky, Apollo Rainbow, or El Condor Pasa.

…Putting it bluntly, I’m not weak. In fact, if the others don’t come up with proper counter-strategies, I’m strong enough to just run away with it. That’s objective fact. Even with Seichan and Spe-chan tailing me hard in the Hopeful and the Satsuki, I still managed to finish within a hair’s breadth of victory.

Maybe you could say they were just late to realize it, or maybe it’s just that someone like me—who lacks finesse—can’t easily pull off a counter to a counter.

Either way, I’ve made it this far. I have to go over every possible angle, every detail, to make sure what happened in the Satsuki doesn’t happen again.

"Next, let’s talk about El Condor Pasa in Slot 2, Gate 4. She’s got a great inside draw, so there’s no doubt she’ll go with a front-running strategy. The question is who she’ll mark—Special Week, Seiun Sky, or Apollo. But given that she prefers a classic race approach, I doubt she’d want to get caught up in a suicide pace like Apollo’s."

Tomio stacked El-chan’s photo on top of mine.

According to his prediction, El Condor Pasa will be shadowing me.

"Of course, from her perspective, this’ll be her first time dealing with your full-on breakaway strategy. I’m sure she’s prepped plenty for it, but we’ve also got our own countermeasures for her pressure and her tricks. So yeah, it’s probably a fifty-fifty situation."

Tomio then took down El Condor Pasa’s photo and stuck up King Halo’s.

"Now, King Halo’s in Slot 1, Gate 2… and she’s a bit of a wild card. In the Yayoi Sho, she had an inside draw and got swallowed up by the pack—that was a big reason she lost. But even so, she probably doesn’t want to abandon her preferred closing style. So it’s a tough call with her..."

A photo of King Halo’s face was drifting aimlessly over the Tokyo Racecourse map drawn on the whiteboard. Just like Tomio, who still couldn’t pin down what she might do, even if I tried putting myself in King-chan’s shoes, deciding between “closing” and “stalking” strategies was extremely difficult.

Up to now, King-chan had always run as a closer. In the Yayoi Sho, she got boxed in and lost her rhythm. In the Satsuki Sho, she got over-eager during a mid-race slowdown and lost again.

Even so, she’d still managed to place within the top three both times. …Come to think of it, more than the strategy itself, it seemed like whether or not she got over-eager was the deciding factor. If she went with stalking—something she wasn’t comfortable with—the odds of that happening would only go up. So in the end, I figured she’d probably come as a closer again.

When I told Tomio that, he scratched his cheek, eyes fixed on King Halo’s face.
“Yeah… Apollo, you think so too, huh…”

“When it comes to King Halo, I guess she’ll have to accept the risk of getting boxed in and go with closing.”

Then Tomio moved on, sticking Grass-chan’s photo onto the board.

“Gate 10, frame 5: Grass Wonder. Sure, she won the Aoba Sho… but to be honest, she’s not a real threat right now. As long as her left-turn issues remain unresolved, we’re not marking her. Besides, with how she is now, I doubt she can do much more than just—ruuun with aaaallll her might.”

—The Japanese Derby isn’t a race you win just by running with all your might. You need to combine that effort with technique, weave in a little trickery, and wear down your rivals. That’s the only way you get first place. Right now, Grass Wonder is doing all she can just to keep her messed-up stride in check after her injury.

Tomio placed her under the “closer” category, lining her up beside King Halo. That gave us two stalkers—Special Week and El Condor Pasa—and two closers—King Halo and Grass Wonder. The last category was “front-runners,” and… well, no need to say it—it had to be Seiun Sky.

She was drawn wide and reportedly not in great form, but underestimate her and she’d lure you into one of her tricks and devour you—Seiun Sky was that kind of horse girl. Tomio brought over her photo—ranked sixth in the odds—and placed it facing mine.

“…She’s the one we can’t let run it like she did in the Satsuki Sho.”

So in the “front-runner” slot, it was me and Seiun Sky. That wrapped up our tactical analysis of the six top contenders. Of all of them, Seiun Sky was the hardest to predict. We figured she wouldn’t try to lead outright this time—more likely, she’d hang back in second and look for an opening to strike.

Which meant, the only countermeasure I had was—never, ever let her take the lead. If she tried to line up beside me, I’d keep pushing the pace without giving her a chance to breathe, grind her down.

If she passed me, I’d spend hundreds of meters clawing my way back. And if she tried to pull off one of her underhanded moves, I’d just keep looking straight ahead, unfazed. It’s absurd, but that’s the only ray of hope when it comes to beating Seiun Sky.

In the end, my plan was to make everyone chase after my back and just run with everything I had. Considering my running style, the more recklessly I ran, the stronger I became.

It wasn’t easy, of course. But Tomio had told me, “If you can keep running in your rhythm like you're in a trance, Apollo, there’s no doubt—you could become a front-runner on par with Silence Suzuka.” That was the highest praise a front-runner like me could ever hope for. After that, all I could do was commit myself fully to a headlong, mindless sprint.

At the Japanese Derby, I was sure to be heavily marked… but there was no one I intended to mark in return. If I had to say, the only one I was watching out for—was myself.

My plan was to go all out, seize the front, and make it a race I’d never regret. There was a lot to keep in mind, but in the end, for a mad-dash runner like me, it all came down to confronting my own weakness. To withstand the pressure, the intense targeting—and still not break. That was the heart of my strategy.

By the time the final Derby meeting wrapped up, the sun had long since set, and night had completely taken over. A cool breeze drifted in through the open window of the trainer’s room, carrying the faint scent of fresh grass. There was something almost fateful in the air, and I found myself picturing the track.

After parting ways with my trainer—he’d warned me to “get some early sleep”—my feet naturally led me toward the turf.

—Why, I wonder. My heart was racing. I knew no one might be there, but some kind of sixth sense was telling me someone would be. Go, it said—this person is someone your future needs. It was like a version of me I didn’t even know was whispering to me.

I quickened my pace and arrived at the training track inside Tracen Academy. But no one was there. The woodchip course under the lights, the perfectly trimmed grass—it was all still and silent. I shivered in the moonlit breeze and murmured,

“…Figures. No one’s here… So what was that feeling?”

Just as my voice dissolved into the night, someone stepped out from the darkness behind me. I yelped and backed toward the light. The figure, whose face I couldn’t make out, reached out a hand.

“Um… You’re Apollo Rainbow-san, right?”

“Huh—Silence Suzuka-senpai…?”

Emerging from the shadows into the light was a horse girl with a gentle presence—Silence Suzuka. I was stunned. I never thought she even knew my name. We’d never really interacted directly, so… when did she find out?

As I stood there puzzled, she glanced away and nervously fiddled with the hem of her track jacket.

“Um… I didn’t come here to talk to you because I had anything specific to say or anything…”

“…?”

“It’s just… I don’t know how to explain it… Like, I… felt something. Like destiny, or… like I was guided here by someone. And then you were here, so I… just started talking…”

Her ears, with her nameplate attached, twitched in all directions. I couldn’t really follow what she was saying, but it seemed like she didn’t understand it herself, either. Something about destiny, or being led by someone… nothing concrete.

But then again, I didn’t have a clear reason for being here either. Something unknown had drawn me here. As she stood there, deep in thought with a hand to her chin, I stepped forward and gently took that hand in mine. I didn’t know why. My body just… moved on its own.

“…Apollo-san?”

“S-sorry for doing this so suddenly. But I felt like… I had to.”

“…Yeah. I felt the same way.”

“…………”

It was a strange exchange—empty, and yet… not. I wasn’t sure if I understood what was happening, or if I understood nothing at all. My thoughts were floating. But even so, something warm had seeped into my heart. Letting my feelings guide me, I reached out to Silence Suzuka. She, in turn, looked a little puzzled but reached up and touched my cheek.

“…This is… our first time meeting, right?”

“I was just about to ask the same thing.”

"Why does it feel like there's something so strong between us?"

"...Beats me."

"I think... I must’ve wanted to tell you something. That’s probably why I came here."

"Something like what...?"

"—This much, I’m sure of. It's about the Japan Derby."

The moment Silence Suzuka uttered the words "Japan Derby," a sudden gust of wind swept through us. Her chestnut hair fluttered, flowing sideways, catching the light of the track lamps and glowing like burnished gold. Our eyes met at close distance, a gaze that locked and held. I watched her silently, waiting for her next words.

Her gaze wavered—right, then left—as if searching for the right thing to say. A few seconds passed. Her brows drew together, and a quiet strength filled her eyes. Then, almost nervously, she spoke in a voice soft and clear, like the ringing of a bell.

"You might not feel the same way at all, Apollo, but... I think you and I are kind of alike. I can’t explain it well, but… it’s like fate, or something close to it. That’s why—I want you to win the Japan Derby. I really, truly do. Yes... I think that's what I came here to tell you."

Her words left me stunned. The reason was obvious. Special Week—her closest teammate, practically family. Everyone knew it: Silence Suzuka was supposed to be rooting for Special Week. That she’d say this to me? It shocked me to my core. Maybe my face showed it, because Suzuka smiled softly at my expression.

"Of course, I want Spe-chan to win, too. But for some reason... I just can’t help wanting to cheer for you as well. For both of you—Spe-chan and you—I want you both to win the Derby."

"..."

"That's all I came to say. Good night, Apollo. Do your best in the Japan Derby."

With those parting words and a gentle smile, Silence Suzuka stepped back into the darkness. Left behind in the glow of the floodlights, I looked down at my feet.

Only twenty-four hours remained until the start of the Japan Derby.